Good morning. The US-Iran ceasefire is the story. It’s fraying badly — Israel struck Lebanon over 100 times in ten minutes yesterday, killing at least 254 people, Hezbollah has retaliated, and Tehran is blocking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pending agreement on transit terms. Trump has warned Iran to comply or the US starts “shooting” again, while simultaneously floating a joint US-Iran toll arrangement on Hormuz shipping — a position the White House then walked back. The gap between the two sides’ formal proposals (a US 15-point plan vs an Iranian 10-point counter) is described by the BBC’s diplomatic correspondent as substantial.

Yvette Cooper addressed City leaders at Mansion House yesterday calling for Lebanon to be included in any deal and for Hormuz to reopen toll-free. The latter is a direct rebuke to Tehran’s position, and also implicitly to Trump’s freelancing on the joint-venture idea. VP Vance has said Lebanon is not part of the current deal, putting Washington and London publicly at odds on scope.

The FT flags two structural consequences worth watching: fewer tankers passed through Hormuz during the ceasefire period than during active fighting, suggesting markets shouldn’t price in normalisation yet; and separately, the war is accelerating dollar-denominated oil trade alternatives, with Opec members using the disruption to push non-dollar settlement arrangements further along.

On energy more broadly, The Economist notes that ruined infrastructure and residual risk will keep prices elevated well beyond any formal ceasefire — relevant for UK input costs. BBC reporting corroborates this from the ground up, with UK farmers already warning of higher food costs flowing through from the conflict.

Iran-linked hackers have disrupted operations at US critical infrastructure sites as the conflict has escalated, per Ars Technica. Worth flagging for anyone with exposure to US operational technology sectors.

Watch today and tomorrow: Whether negotiators can close the gap between the two peace proposals before Trump’s patience runs out — and whether Israel’s Lebanon campaign forces a formal breakdown of the ceasefire framework entirely.


Sources

BBC News, Guardian, Al Jazeera, FT, Ars Technica, The Economist, TechCrunch, Politico — 2026-04-09