Good morning. Here’s what matters today.

The US-Iran ceasefire is holding in name only. Islamabad is locked down for weekend peace talks brokered by Pakistan, but Israel is still striking Lebanon, Netanyahu has publicly denied any ceasefire exists, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The FT reports North Sea oil prices have hit a record high as a result, and Trump is now warning Tehran directly over Hormuz access — which rather undercuts the optimism that briefly lifted global equities this week. Al Jazeera and the Guardian broadly agree on the facts; the key dispute is whether the ceasefire has “taken effect” at all, with Al Jazeera saying it has while the Guardian and FT treat it as precarious at best.

Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera are warning that energy prices could take months to normalise even if talks succeed — cargo flows through Hormuz need to be predictably restored before markets settle, and there’s no sign of that yet. Worth keeping in mind if you’re watching energy exposure.

Starmer used the Iran conflict yesterday to argue the UK needs to build greater economic resilience, framing geopolitical shocks as the new normal. It’s light on specifics so far, but signals the government is looking for a narrative around defence and supply-chain investment ahead of the spending review.

The FT has a piece on how the ceasefire — such as it is — has undercut Netanyahu politically. His military campaign fell short of stated aims, and Israeli elections are approaching. A weakened Netanyahu changes the calculus on any durable regional settlement.

On tech: Florida’s AG is opening a probe into OpenAI over alleged harms to minors and a possible link to last year’s FSU shooting. The legal basis looks thin, but it adds to the regulatory pressure building around AI companies in the US. Separately, Anthropic published details of a psychiatric evaluation process for Claude — framed as making the model more “psychologically settled.” Interesting as a signal of where frontier AI labs think reputational risk lies.

Hungary’s election is shaping up as a genuine contest. Both the Economist and Guardian have pieces on Péter Magyar, whose Tisza party is leading polls against Orbán. Worth watching — a liberal win in Budapest would be the most significant shift in Central European politics in over a decade.

Watch over the weekend: whether the Islamabad talks produce anything concrete, and how oil markets open Monday if Hormuz remains blocked.

Sources

Guardian, BBC News, Al Jazeera, Politico, FT, Ars Technica, TechCrunch, The Economist — 2026-04-10