Good morning. Here’s what matters today.

The big one: US-Iran talks collapse in Islamabad

After 21 hours of negotiations in Pakistan, JD Vance left without a deal and publicly blamed Tehran, saying Iran “chose not to accept” US terms including a commitment to abandon nuclear weapons development. Iranian officials blamed American inflexibility. Pakistan’s foreign minister is urging both sides to hold the existing ceasefire, which suggests the shooting has stopped for now — but the diplomatic path forward looks genuinely unclear. The Economist frames this as the opening of a high-stakes negotiation rather than a final breakdown, which is a more cautious read than the US side’s public posture.

Energy and commodity markets took a hit when this started

The FT reports commodity trading firms lost “billions” in the early days of the Iran war, caught out by the speed of the energy price spike. Worth keeping in mind as you assess how exposed counterparties are if the ceasefire frays and Hormuz becomes contested again — the FT also has a useful piece on the history of states taxing that strait, which is directly relevant to where this goes next.

Gulf wealth is already moving

Switzerland’s Zug is seeing an influx of Gulf-based individuals and companies seeking refuge from Middle East instability, per the FT. Early-stage capital flight, but a signal worth tracking if you have exposure to GCC-linked assets or clients.

Hungary votes today

Polls open in Hungary’s parliamentary election, with Viktor Orbán facing his toughest challenge in 16 years from Péter Magyar’s grassroots movement. Most polling favours Magyar, but Orbán has defied polls before. A change of government in Budapest would have real implications for EU cohesion, NATO politics, and the Ukraine funding debate.

Ukraine: Easter truce, low expectations

A weekend ceasefire held in Ukraine over Easter, but the BBC’s reporting from Kharkiv captures the mood accurately — nobody believes it lasts. Watch for whether fighting resumes Monday and how quickly.

Sam Altman responds to New Yorker profile

OpenAI’s CEO published a blog post pushing back on a New Yorker investigation raising questions about his trustworthiness, following what he described as an attack on his home. The piece is getting serious traction; worth reading the original profile if you haven’t, given OpenAI’s centrality to enterprise AI decisions.

Watch today: Hungarian election results will start coming through this evening — and whether either side in the Iran talks makes any public move to restart negotiations or, alternatively, whether the ceasefire holds through the week.

Sources

Guardian, Al Jazeera, BBC News, FT, TechCrunch, The Economist, Ars Technica, Politico — 2026-04-12