Good morning. Here’s what matters today.

The Mandelson row isn’t finished even though Starmer won the vote. Downing Street had to spend real political capital forcing Labour MPs to block a privileges committee referral over the ambassador appointment, and several of those MPs are now openly saying he’s running out of road. The rebellion was seen off, but the cost was visible. Worth watching how the next contentious vote plays out.

On oil and banking, two earnings prints are worth noting together. TotalEnergies reported a 29% profit jump, crediting production gains outside the Gulf that have offset disruption from the Iran conflict. UBS followed with an 80% surge in quarterly profit, driven largely by trading activity that the bank attributed directly to market volatility from the same war. Both numbers are a reminder that the Iran conflict is now a structural input to commodity and markets positioning, not just a geopolitical backdrop.

The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC is the bigger structural story in energy. Abu Dhabi has been producing above its quota for some time, and the formal exit crystallises tensions that have been building across the cartel for years. The Economist’s read is that it won’t immediately break OPEC, but it removes the Gulf’s most credible swing producer from the discipline framework at exactly the moment when the Iran war is already distorting supply signals. Anyone with energy exposure needs to think about what OPEC cohesion actually means now.

On the OpenAI-Microsoft restructuring: Amazon has moved fast. A day after Microsoft agreed to relinquish its exclusivity on OpenAI products — bringing forward the end of its preferential window — AWS announced it is already listing OpenAI models including a new agent service. The commercial landscape around frontier AI is fragmenting quickly, and the assumption that Microsoft had a durable moat on OpenAI distribution looks shakier than it did a fortnight ago.

King Charles addressed Congress yesterday in a speech that was politely but unmistakably pointed — references to NATO, Ukraine, and climate, framed as a 250th anniversary tribute to American leadership. Trump was in the room. The FT’s read is that the flattery and pageantry couldn’t fully conceal the strain in the relationship. No immediate policy consequence, but it sets a tone for where London sees the transatlantic relationship and how far Starmer is willing to use soft channels to push back.

The US Q1 GDP print is due tomorrow. Given the tariff disruption and the Iran war’s effect on input costs, the number will be read closely for signs of stagflationary pressure.

Sources

Al Jazeera, BBC News, FT, Guardian, TechCrunch, Ars Technica, Politico, The Economist — 2026-04-29