Brent crude is trading above $125 a barrel after the FT reported the Strait of Hormuz blockade is now in its 62nd day. Overnight, Axios reported that US Central Command has prepared plans for a wave of “short and powerful” strikes on Iran. Trump has publicly urged Tehran to “give up,” saying the port blockade is working. European equities and government bonds both fell on the news, with the energy shock reviving fears of a prolonged inflation spike across developed markets.

The Bank of England decision next week is now more complicated. The BBC reports that analysts are already flagging that the Iran conflict makes future base rate moves genuinely hard to call. Higher oil feeding into headline CPI gives the MPC political cover to hold, even if underlying domestic demand would otherwise argue for a cut. Watch Bailey’s language carefully.

On UK politics, Nigel Farage has confirmed he received a £5 million personal gift from Reform mega-donor Christopher Harborne shortly before the 2024 general election, disclosed only after the Guardian approached him for comment. Farage says the money was for personal security. He has been referred to the parliamentary standards watchdog. The story lands in the same week as local elections where Reform is expected to make significant gains, and it will test whether the party’s voters treat financial opacity differently when it comes from their own side.

The Golders Green stabbings are now being treated as a terrorism offence. Police say the suspect was specifically targeting anyone visibly Jewish. It follows a series of arson attacks on Jewish sites in London since March. The Metropolitan Police have released body-worn camera footage of the arrest.

On Big Tech earnings, Alphabet’s cloud division grew faster than both AWS and Azure in the latest quarter. Meta’s stock dropped after it raised capital expenditure guidance. Across the five major AI-investing hyperscalers, total planned capex is now running at $725 billion, per the FT. Separately, Anthropic is reported by TechCrunch to be fielding pre-emptive funding offers valuing the company at between $850 billion and $900 billion, which would make it one of the most valuable private companies ever. Given that Anthropic has no public revenue disclosure, that number is entirely a bet on AI infrastructure demand — the same demand now being priced into oil markets via data centre power consumption.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decision is due next Thursday, 7th May.


Sources

BBC News, FT, Al Jazeera, Guardian, TechCrunch, The Economist, Ars Technica, Politico — 2026-04-30