Good morning. A busy few days — here’s what matters.

The Starmer leadership story is real but still contained. Catherine West, a former junior minister, has publicly challenged cabinet colleagues to trigger a contest by Monday, and Downing Street is visibly rattled enough to be briefing against it. Starmer says he won’t quit. The practical risk of an imminent challenge is low — the threshold for a Labour leadership contest is high and no cabinet figure has moved. But the optics heading into the week are poor, and it compounds the local election damage. Reform’s performance in the English locals is now being dissected in detail: the first-past-the-post system, which Labour has historically relied on, is now working against both main parties simultaneously. That’s a structural story worth watching as the boundary of viable electoral coalitions shifts.

Teachers in England look set to ballot on strike action this autumn. The National Education Union has said it will proceed without urgent government movement on pay. Given the fiscal constraints Reeves is operating under, there’s no obvious concession available. Add it to the list of public sector pressure points.

On global macro, Trump is due in Beijing on Wednesday for a summit with Xi — the first presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. He goes in a weak position domestically: an FT poll puts more than half of US voters disapproving of his handling of the economy, with the Iran war and inflation cited as the main drags on his approval. Republican midterm prospects are described as under pressure. The combination of a diplomatically significant trip and a president negotiating from domestic weakness makes this one to watch closely for any trade or tariff signals that come out of it.

Saudi Aramco has reported higher profits despite the Iran conflict, with the east-west pipeline allowing it to route oil around the Strait of Hormuz. The practical implication is that the war has so far failed to produce the supply shock some expected — Aramco is still pumping and still profitable. Worth keeping in mind if you’ve been pricing in a sustained disruption premium.

The Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI heads into its final week in court, with Sam Altman due to testify. The FT’s coverage frames it as a window into the internal rivalries behind OpenAI’s $852bn valuation. Nothing actionable yet, but Altman’s testimony could surface material details about governance, the Microsoft relationship, or the IPO timeline that move the story.

Trump is reportedly planning to fire FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, according to Ars Technica. The plan is described as not final. For anyone with healthcare or pharma exposure, a leadership change at the FDA adds regulatory uncertainty at an already volatile moment for the sector.

Trump-Xi summit begins Wednesday.

Sources

Guardian, BBC News, Al Jazeera, FT, TechCrunch, Politico, The Economist, Ars Technica — 2026-05-10