Good morning. Here’s what matters this weekend.

The Iran situation is moving fast. Trump claimed late Saturday that a deal with Tehran is “largely negotiated,” with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen. Rubio followed up saying an announcement could come within hours, though he was careful to say it wouldn’t be a final agreement. The FT notes US oil producers have already ramped drilling in response to the 40% price surge since the war began, and that supply crunch has been denting Trump’s approval ratings — which gives you a sense of how much political pressure is behind this push. Worth watching closely: a partial or provisional deal that reopens Hormuz without resolving the underlying nuclear question is a different risk profile to a comprehensive settlement, and markets will need to price that distinction quickly.

Russia hit Kyiv overnight with Oreshnik hypersonic missiles — the same system first used operationally last autumn. Four dead, dozens injured. Zelensky had warned of an imminent large-scale attack hours before it landed. The use of Oreshnik again signals Moscow is comfortable deploying its most visible deterrent-tier weapons in a tactical context, which is worth noting for anyone thinking about European defence spending trajectories and the NATO posture debate heading into the summer.

The Guardian has a well-sourced piece suggesting mood inside Russia is souring on Putin — “profound disappointment” is the phrase attributed to well-placed sources — with the economy visibly under strain. It doesn’t change the near-term picture, but it’s relevant context for how long this war’s economic drag on Europe persists.

On the Iran procurement angle, the FT has reporting that the Revolutionary Guards used a UAE-based company to acquire military satellite equipment, with records showing the network was active even as Iran was striking Gulf state targets. That’s a compliance and sanctions-enforcement story with direct implications for anyone with Gulf financial exposure.

SpaceX flew Starship V3 for the first time. The FT describes it as “mostly successful” but notes the vehicle is still a work in progress and not yet ready for low-Earth orbit missions. Incrementally positive for the commercial launch market, but no step-change this weekend.

Tulsi Gabbard’s resignation as Director of National Intelligence, per the Economist, weakens what little anti-interventionist influence existed around Trump. That’s relevant context for reading how durable any Iran deal actually is — the hawks around the president remain dominant.

The first significant scheduled data point of the week: UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit figures are due Monday morning from the Bank of England, which will feed directly into the rate-cut timing debate given how sensitive the MPC has been to household credit conditions.

Sources

Guardian, BBC News, FT, Al Jazeera, TechCrunch, Ars Technica, Politico, The Economist — 2026-05-24