Oil is the story this morning. Brent has slid on reports that the US and Iran are close to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been driving fuel prices roughly 50% higher and squeezing US consumer spending. The catch: Iran’s foreign minister said over the weekend that a deal is not imminent, directly contradicting Marco Rubio’s suggestion that an agreement could be announced as early as today. Rubio added that Washington would find “another way” if talks collapse — which markets will read as a veiled military threat. Republican hawks are separately pressuring Trump not to concede too much, so even if something is signed, ratification of the terms looks messy. Watch the Brent curve closely today; the spread between near and far contracts will tell you how much of the Hormuz premium the market is actually willing to give back.

The SNP story has a political economy angle worth noting. Peter Murrell, Nicola Sturgeon’s former husband and the SNP’s ex-chief executive, pleaded guilty in Edinburgh’s High Court to embezzling just over £400,000 from the party. The deal with prosecutors reduced the original charges. This effectively closes the legal chapter on the scandal that has been hollowing out the SNP for two years, but the reputational damage to Scottish nationalism as a credible governing force is now locked in by a guilty plea rather than a contested trial.

The RAF GPS-jamming incident is worth flagging. The plane carrying the Defence Secretary had its signal jammed near the Russian border, forcing pilots onto alternative navigation systems. It’s a reminder that electronic warfare harassment of NATO assets is now routine enough to happen to a ministerial aircraft, and it lands in a week when European defence spending commitments are under active parliamentary scrutiny.

On the macro backdrop, the FT’s piece on US consumers is worth sitting with. The argument is that Trump’s tax rebates provided a temporary cushion that is now fading, and with fuel costs elevated by the Hormuz blockade, discretionary spending is coming under real pressure in H2. If that feeds through to weaker retail data in the next two monthly prints, the Fed’s already complicated rate path gets more complicated still.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 retrenchment is getting serious coverage. The picture emerging is of project deferrals, contractor disputes, and a sovereign wealth fund that overextended into illiquid assets at the top of the cycle. For anyone with EM exposure or infrastructure fund positions linked to Gulf capex, the direction of travel is clearly downward revision.

The Colombia presidential election is too close to call, with a Trump-aligned populist closing fast on the incumbent left. A result is expected later this week and a shift in Bogotá’s posture on US trade and Venezuela policy would matter for the region.

The US-Iran nuclear talks resume in some form today, with Rubio’s deadline language suggesting Washington wants a headline before the week is out.

Sources

BBC News, Guardian, Al Jazeera, The Economist, FT, TechCrunch, Ars Technica — 2026-05-25