The US-Iran situation is the dominant story this morning and it matters directly for positioning.

Trump ordered strikes on Iranian military targets following what the White House says was Iran shooting down a US Army helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has retaliated, firing missiles at US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian state media has been releasing footage of the launches. Tehran is simultaneously accusing Washington of “harming the diplomatic process by violating a ceasefire,” which suggests some back-channel framework existed and has now broken down. Danny Citrinowicz, formerly head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence and now at the Atlantic Council, said even a limited US military campaign would not fundamentally shift Iran’s negotiating position, and that continued confrontations risk spiralling beyond anyone’s control. Brent will be the first number to watch at the open. Strait of Hormuz risk premium is back on the table in a serious way.

On Belfast: disorder continued overnight after Monday’s knife attack, with cars and houses burning and residents being evacuated. The suspect, Hadi Alodid, appeared in court this morning charged with attempted murder and possession of a knife. He refused legal representation. Northern Ireland’s political leaders are calling for calm. For UK macro purposes this is worth watching for any spillover into broader political pressure on the government’s immigration and asylum policy, which has already been a live fault line.

The ECB has ordered Revolut to address “deficiencies” in oversight, describing its product rollout approach internally as “self-guided missiles.” Given Revolut’s scale across European retail and its ongoing push into business banking, any supervisory tightening has read-across for the broader European fintech regulatory environment. Worth noting for anyone with exposure to the sector.

Commonwealth Fusion has published five peer-reviewed papers updating the design and modelling the expected output of its 400 MW compact fusion reactor. The physics case is being made publicly and formally, which is a different posture from where the company was two years ago. Not a near-term trade, but the institutional capital flowing into fusion is real and this moves the credibility dial.

On the AI infrastructure side, Meta has signed its first data centre deal in India, a 168-megawatt facility with Reliance with expansion optionality. Separately, Google has cut the price of its budget AI subscription tier. Neither is a market-mover on its own, but together they continue to sketch out the competitive dynamic: hyperscalers are simultaneously building out physical infrastructure globally and competing down on consumer pricing.

US CPI for May prints tomorrow at 13:30 BST. Given the Iran escalation overnight, the combination of an energy price spike and a sticky inflation read would be an uncomfortable one for Fed watchers.

Sources

Guardian, BBC News, Al Jazeera, The Economist, TechCrunch, FT, Politico, Ars Technica — 2026-06-10