The US-Iran conflict is escalating fast. Washington launched a second round of airstrikes on Iran overnight, and Tehran responded by targeting Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. A ceasefire that appeared to be taking shape has now effectively collapsed. Three Indian sailors were confirmed dead after a US strike on the Palau-flagged MT Settebello, which was accused of carrying Iranian oil — India’s shipping minister named the vessel and confirmed the deaths. Separately, metals markets were already tightening before this week’s strikes; copper and aluminium had been rallying on supply concerns, and the conflict is now compounding that pressure. Anyone with commodity exposure or emerging market positions touching the Gulf needs to be watching this closely.

On the domestic front, Belfast has seen serious disorder following a stabbing incident, with water cannon deployed and twelve police officers injured. The Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn described the violence as racist thuggery. The Home Office has used the moment to publicise a 16% increase in immigration enforcement raids in Northern Ireland under the current government, alongside a £3.7bn three-year enforcement commitment. The political optics are clearly deliberate, but the unrest itself adds a layer of instability to an already sensitive constitutional context.

In Europe, Germany’s decision to pull out of the joint €100bn FCAS fighter jet programme with France has left both countries — and the broader European defence industrial base — at a crossroads. The collapse of that project is a significant setback for European strategic autonomy ambitions at precisely the moment the continent is trying to demonstrate it can act independently on defence. Separately, EU member states are reportedly weighing a significant restructuring of the EEAS, the bloc’s diplomatic service, with Kaja Kallas facing criticism over coordination and leadership. Neither story is resolved, but both bear on how seriously European institutions can function under pressure.

On AI, a lawsuit filed by a former xAI engineer alleges he was dismissed after raising safety concerns about Grok in the days before SpaceX’s IPO. The claim directly implicates both companies and, if it progresses, could create disclosure headaches around the IPO timeline. Worth monitoring if you have any exposure to the SpaceX listing.

US CPI data for May prints this afternoon at 13:30 London time.

Sources

BBC News, Guardian, The Economist, Al Jazeera, FT, TechCrunch, Politico, Ars Technica — 2026-06-11