Good morning. Here’s what matters today.

The Makerfield by-election result is the story in UK politics. Andy Burnham won with 55% of the vote, comfortably seeing off Reform on 35%, and the scale of it has accelerated what was already a live leadership question. Burnham has been consulting economists ahead of a potential run, David Blunkett has publicly said Starmer should stand aside, and Starmer himself insists he’ll fight any contest. The Economist is calling Burnham prime-minister-in-waiting this morning. Separately, Scottish Conservatives took Aberdeen South — their first Westminster by-election win in over 50 years — which adds another data point to a complicated picture of where the anti-Labour vote is settling. For anyone thinking about UK political risk and the policy trajectory into the next election, the leadership question is no longer theoretical.

On Iran, the US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Switzerland have been postponed. Tehran pushed back after Israel continued strikes on Lebanon following the framework deal signed earlier this week. Vance pulled out of the trip. The FT notes that reaching a durable agreement will be considerably harder than the 2015 JCPOA — Iran’s position has hardened and the trust deficit is wider. The immediate consequence is that the ceasefire-adjacent calm priced into some regional risk assets looks shakier than it did 48 hours ago.

On China, the FT has a useful piece on why Xi’s domestic demand push isn’t gaining traction. Activity is sputtering at the midpoint of 2026 despite policy signals, which matters for anyone with commodity exposure or EM positioning tied to a Chinese consumption recovery thesis.

On the ASML story — the US has suggested one of ASML’s top-tier EUV machines may have ended up in China. ASML disputes this, and TechCrunch notes the commercial logic cuts against it: ASML would be risking its export licence, which is existential for the company. Worth watching how this develops given the sensitivity around chip equipment controls.

The G7 piece in the Economist is worth a read if you have time — the suggestion is that European diplomats see a genuine, if narrow, shift in Washington’s posture on Ukraine. Not a resolution, but a window.

The FDA advisory panel unanimously voted to recommend approval of Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine, after months of political interference from a Trump official who had refused to review it. A clean unanimous vote is notable given the context.

The Baseten fundraise — reportedly $1.5 billion at a $13 billion valuation, months after its last round — is another data point on how aggressively capital is chasing AI inference infrastructure. Not a single company story, but the velocity of these rounds is relevant to anyone thinking about where the AI capex cycle goes next.

UK retail sales data for May drops this morning at 07:00.

Sources

BBC News, Guardian, Al Jazeera, FT, The Economist, Politico, TechCrunch, Ars Technica — 2026-06-19