The US-Iran situation has escalated sharply. Trump declared the interim truce “over” after two consecutive nights of American strikes on around 170 targets inside Iran. Tehran responded by hitting US military-linked sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar — a significant step, as it brings Gulf host nations directly into the exchange. Iran’s foreign ministry described the strikes as “war crimes.” Trump simultaneously claimed Iran had called to negotiate, though he cast doubt on any deal materialising. For anyone with Gulf exposure or positions sensitive to oil supply risk, this is the story of the week.

The FT also runs a separate piece on the post-Khamenei succession question, noting that his son Mojtaba — little known publicly — now faces the compounding pressure of military confrontation alongside the regime’s structural fragility. That’s worth keeping in mind as a medium-term Iran risk frame, even if it’s not today’s trade.

On UK politics, Andy Burnham is running unopposed in the Labour leadership contest to replace Starmer. That is a meaningful signal about where the party’s internal gravity sits — northern, metro-left, public-service-focused. No challenger has emerged yet, so the contest may be less a race than a coronation. How he positions on fiscal rules and public investment will matter for gilt markets once the leadership question is settled.

The FT has a piece on transformer supply chains that deserves a read if you have data centre or energy infrastructure exposure. The argument is that surging AI-driven power demand is running into a century-old bottleneck: transformer manufacturing capacity, which takes years to expand. It’s not a new concern but the piece frames it as an active constraint on hyperscaler build-out timelines rather than a background risk.

Lovable, the AI-assisted app-building platform, is reportedly in talks to raise $300 million at a $13.2 billion valuation — double its last mark — with Menlo Ventures leading. The round hasn’t closed, but if accurate it signals that appetite for applied AI tooling at eye-watering multiples hasn’t cooled. Worth watching for what it implies about late-stage private market sentiment more broadly.

The Economist has published an interview with Russian oligarch Andrey Melnichenko, described as breaking his silence. He apparently warns of a “looming disaster” facing Russia. The interview is notable less for any specific revelation than for the fact that it happened at all — a figure of that standing speaking publicly about regime risk is unusual.

US CPI for June prints tomorrow, Friday 10th July. Given that the Fed’s next meeting is late July, this number will do a lot of work in shaping rate expectations heading into the decision.

Sources

BBC News, Guardian, Al Jazeera, Politico, The Economist, FT, TechCrunch, Ars Technica — 2026-07-09