Good morning. Here’s what matters from the weekend.

The US-Iran situation has escalated sharply and is now the dominant macro story. Washington launched further strikes on Iran over the weekend, and Tehran has responded by targeting sites linked to US military presence in Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. Iran is also claiming the Strait of Hormuz is closed, though Trump is insisting it remains open. Oil jumped on the news as markets moved into risk-off mode. The Hormuz question is the one to watch — roughly 20% of global oil supply transits there, and even a partial or contested closure reprices energy assets fast. The ceasefire that briefly looked possible is now under serious strain.

Asian chipmakers took a hammering in Friday’s session and the selling continued into Monday. TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung together make up nearly 30% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, so the drawdown has broad implications for EM exposure. The FT reports investors are cutting back after a blistering rally, suggesting this is partly positioning rather than pure fundamentals — but the risk-off backdrop from the Gulf isn’t helping.

On UK domestic matters, Andy Burnham is now widely expected to be confirmed as the next Prime Minister, with BBC correspondents already filing on how foreign capitals are likely to receive him. No formal announcement yet, but the coverage has moved from speculation to near-certainty. Worth watching for any market reaction to policy signals as he moves closer to taking office.

Gibraltar quietly removed 118 years of border controls with Spain over the weekend. Free movement between the territory and the Spanish mainland is now in effect. It’s a modest but real economic development for the territory and a rare piece of constructive UK-EU progress worth noting.

The Ebola outbreak in Congo has spread to five provinces and is now described by the Economist as getting out of control, with South Sudan potentially next. Contained for now, but the trajectory matters for anyone with African frontier exposure or watching for macro disruption in the region.

UK heatwave deaths from May and June have been estimated at around 2,700, with 440 dying per day at the June peak. The second heatwave is now intensifying again this week. Beyond the human cost, this is feeding into the political conversation around infrastructure resilience and NHS capacity ahead of any Burnham administration’s first policy choices.

UK CPI data for June is due Wednesday morning — the first major data point of the week and the one most likely to move rate expectations before the Bank’s next meeting.

Sources

FT, Al Jazeera, Guardian, BBC News, The Economist, Politico, TechCrunch, Ars Technica — 2026-07-13