The Strait of Hormuz situation is the dominant story this morning. US forces have struck Iran for a third consecutive night, and Trump has announced a maritime blockade of the strait. Iranian cruise missiles hit two oil tankers in the strait, killing one crew member and wounding eight. Brent is trading around $85, the highest in a month. The immediate concern for markets is an inflation shock — Australian economists are already flagging a fourth rate rise this year if this isn’t resolved quickly, and the same logic applies in the UK, where the Bank is watching energy prices closely. Bonds and equities are both under pressure.

China’s monthly car exports crossed one million units for the first time, a milestone that will sharpen the debate in Brussels and Westminster about trade exposure. Separately, the FT flags that monthly data ahead of Q2 GDP — due shortly — shows weakness in retail sales and fixed investment. If the headline number disappoints, expect renewed pressure on Beijing to stimulate, which has its own implications for commodity demand at a moment when oil is already moving.

On UK domestic politics, counter-terrorism police have taken over the investigation into the death of Ann Widdecombe. The Home Secretary confirmed the suspect was not known to Prevent. The political fallout — around MP security and the broader environment for elected officials — is running hard in Westminster, though it has no immediate market read.

Ukraine’s drone campaign has effectively shut down Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov in under a week, according to Ars Technica. That’s a meaningful tactical shift and worth watching for any knock-on effect on Black Sea grain and commodity flows.

China’s Q2 GDP print is due Wednesday. Given the weakness in the monthly indicators, the number will set the tone for EM positioning for the rest of the week.

Sources

Al Jazeera, Guardian, FT, BBC News, TechCrunch, Ars Technica, Politico, The Economist — 2026-07-14