Good morning. Here’s what matters today.

The US-Iran confrontation escalated sharply overnight. Trump told Fox News that next week’s strikes will target Iranian power plants and bridges unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table, with the two sides exchanging fire for a fourth consecutive day and the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports. Oil prices are moving on this. The strait of Hormuz angle keeps this directly relevant to energy positioning — any sustained disruption there is a supply shock of the first order, and the language from Washington is now explicitly threatening civilian infrastructure rather than military assets.

China’s second-quarter GDP came in below the government’s annual target range, one of the weakest prints in decades. The detail matters more than the headline — this lands as tariff pressure from Washington is already biting, domestic consumption remains soft, and the property sector hasn’t stabilised. It complicates the case for a China recovery trade and puts more pressure on Beijing to announce stimulus.

ASML lifted its forecasts and shares jumped 7%. The Dutch company’s tone on AI-driven chipmaking demand was notably bullish — they’re not hedging on duration. For anyone watching semiconductor exposure, this is a useful data point that the capex cycle in AI infrastructure isn’t rolling over yet.

On the same theme, Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT is seeking $10bn in what would be the largest China IPO since 2010, capitalising on AI memory demand. Worth watching for what it signals about Beijing’s push to close the gap in advanced chip production, and for how international investors respond given the current sanctions environment.

Back in Westminster, Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden signalled a meaningful shift on welfare, saying Labour must stop “simply writing a cheque” for health and disability claimants and will instead focus on getting more people into work. This is the clearest ministerial language yet ahead of the welfare review conclusions, and it suggests the fiscal consolidation pressure is now forcing the government’s hand on a politically sensitive spending line.

The BNPL regulatory framework formally came into force, requiring lenders to seek FCA authorisation. Not a market-mover, but it changes the operating environment for the sector and the consumer credit landscape more broadly.

Microsoft’s Secure Boot has apparently had an exploitable vulnerability sitting unnoticed for a decade, with old unrevoked security certificates making bypasses straightforward. For anyone with enterprise IT exposure or cyber insurance positions, this is worth flagging to your technology teams.

US CPI for June prints tomorrow morning, London time. It’s the key input for Fed rate expectations and will move dollar and gilt markets.

Sources

BBC News, Al Jazeera, FT, Guardian, TechCrunch, Politico, Ars Technica, The Economist — 2026-07-15