Andy Burnham’s first days as prime minister are generating more noise than signal so far. The VAT cut on electricity bills — saving households around £45 a year — is modest as a cost-of-living measure but signals the direction of travel. More consequential is the cabinet reshuffle, with John Healey installed as chancellor. The BBC’s political editor notes Healey faces immediate and difficult spending choices, which is the right framing: the fiscal inheritance is constrained and the new government is already being lobbied hard. Academics linked to Gabriel Zucman at the Paris School of Economics are urging Burnham to introduce a 2% annual charge on households with assets above £100m, projecting £10bn a year in revenue. Whether that goes anywhere depends on Healey’s appetite for a fight with capital markets, but it will set the tone for how seriously the new administration is taken on tax reform.

Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods, accusing Ottawa of unfair trade practices. Prime Minister Carney has said Canada will “intensify” trade talks rather than immediately retaliate in kind, but the scale of the escalation is significant — this is well beyond the earlier rounds of tit-for-tat. For UK-based managers, the read-through is twofold: further pressure on North American supply chains, and a reminder that the US is willing to use tariff levels that markets had largely stopped pricing as realistic.

Separately, the US has launched fresh strikes on Iran. Iran has responded by hitting two ships in the Strait of Hormuz and striking targets in Bahrain and Jordan. This is a material escalation. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil supply, and any sustained disruption there would move energy markets fast. Worth watching closely today.

China is consulting companies on tighter export controls covering AI models and chips, aimed at preventing Western acquisition of advanced Chinese technology and preventing leading AI startups from being absorbed into Western supply chains. This is the mirror image of US chip controls and suggests Beijing is now treating AI capability as a strategic asset to be actively protected rather than merely developed. The FT has the story; details on which specific models or architectures are in scope remain unclear from what’s been published.

A US federal judge has halted the proposed $111bn merger of Paramount and Warner Bros., granting a restraining order on the grounds the deal likely violates antitrust law. This is a significant setback for the transaction and has broader implications for how aggressively US courts will scrutinise mega-mergers even under an administration generally seen as lighter-touch on regulation.

The Lebanon-Trump meeting is scheduled for today — President Aoun is in Washington asking for reconstruction support and backing against Hizbullah. Worth monitoring for any signal on US Middle East posture, particularly given the Iran strikes overnight.

Sources

Guardian, Al Jazeera, BBC News, FT, TechCrunch, Ars Technica, Politico, The Economist — 2026-07-21